How will Nitish Kumar consolidate BJP to 100 seats in 2024? Know the strategy of George of UPA
Nitish’s biggest strategy is to have a direct contest between BJP and other parties on 450 seats. The 13 parties that Nitish is trying to bring on one platform, their vote percentage in 2019 was around 45%.
Before the heat of May and June, the meeting between Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge and Nitish Kumar has increased the political temperature of Delhi and the entire country in April itself. On March 12, there was a discussion between Mallikarjun Kharge, Rahul Gandhi, Tejashwi Yadav and Nitish Kumar about the opposition unity for about 2 hours at 10 Rajaji Marg, the official residence of the Congress President.
Talking to reporters, Nitish Kumar and Mallikarjun Kharge described the meeting as historic. After meeting Kharge, Nitish Kumar also went to meet AAP convenor Arvind Kejriwal. After the 3-day Delhi tour, Nitish Kumar has indicated the formation of a new and effective front against the BJP like in 2003.
According to sources, if everything goes well, there will be a meeting of some opposition parties including Congress in Delhi at the end of this month, in which Nitish Kumar can be made the coordinator of the alliance. Nitish will bring the parties with common ideology on a single platform, so that BJP can be reduced to less than 100 seats in the 2024 elections.
In February 2023, Nitish Kumar said in a meeting that if the Congress takes the initiative of opposition unity, the BJP will be reduced to 100 seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Questions are also being raised on this claim of Nitish, who has been in power at the Center and Bihar for 25 years with the help of an alliance, but Nitish and his leaders are repeating this claim again and again.
Let us know what is the strategy Nitish Kumar has, with the help of which he is claiming to consolidate the BJP on 100 seats in the Lok Sabha elections?
Preparation to bring together 11 leaders including Mamta, KCR and Jaganmohan
Nitish Kumar’s first attempt is to bring together those leaders who have either been in the Congress or in the UPA alliance. Mamta Banerjee, KCR and Jaganmohan Reddy have left the Congress and formed their own party. That is, the background of these leaders has been Congress only.
Presently Mamta Banerjee is the Chief Minister of West Bengal, KCR Telangana and Jaganmohan Reddy Andhra. All the three leaders are not ready to join Congress. Nitish is preparing to bring these leaders together on one platform.
Apart from this, there is a strategy to include Karnataka’s HD Kumaraswamy, Maharashtra’s Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray, Odisha’s Naveen Patnaik, Haryana’s Om Prakash Chautala and national party CPM and AAP.
Nitish Kumar has personal relations with Kumaraswamy, Naveen Patnaik, Arvind Kejriwal and Om Prakash Chautala. Nitish has met most of the 11 leaders of the list.
These 11 leaders have a strong hold on about 270 seats in 12 states. These include 48 seats in Maharashtra, 42 in West Bengal, 25 in Andhra Pradesh, 21 in Odisha, 20 in Kerala, 17 in Telangana and 14 in Punjab. Except Maharashtra, Karnataka and Bengal, BJP is not in a strong position in other states.
BJP vs all strategy on 450 Loksabha seats
The second and biggest strategy of Nitish Kumar is to have a direct contest between the BJP and other parties on the 450 seats in the Lok Sabha. These include 48 seats in Maharashtra, 42 in West Bengal, 40 in Bihar, 39 in Tamil Nadu, 28 in Karnataka, 25 in Rajasthan, 26 in Gujarat.
The 13 parties that Nitish Kumar is trying to bring on one platform, their vote percentage in 2019 was around 45 per cent. The vote percentage of the BJP, which won 303 seats in the 2019 elections, was 37 per cent. Nitish Kumar believes that if there is BJP versus all on 400 seats, then the vote will not be divided and it can be a loss for BJP.
Understand this with an example- In the 2019 elections held in Bihar for 40 seats, BJP won 17 seats, JDU 16 seats, LJP 6 seats and Congress won one seat. In terms of vote percentage, BJP got 23.58, JDU 21.81, RJD 15, Congress 7 and LJP got 7 percent votes.
Right now JDU, RJD, Congress and Left parties are against BJP. The vote percentage of these parties is above 50. If the votes of these parties fall outright in the elections, then it may be difficult for the BJP.
Action of caste census and central agency will become the main issue
There is also a strategy to prepare a common minimum program for the alliance to be formed against the BJP. Probably the name of the former United Progressive Alliance formed under the leadership of Congress can also be changed. In Bihar, in 2015, Nitish Kumar and Lalu Yadav named the Grand Alliance instead of the UPA.
All parties will move forward on 2 big issues. The first issue among these is to conduct caste census across the country. The second issue is the action of the Central Agency on the opposition leaders. Congress, Trinamool, RJD, BRS, AAP and CPM are troubled by the action of the Central Agency.
Opposition parties say that after the Modi government came under the rule, 95 percent of the Enforcement Directorate’s action has been taken against us. A petition was also filed regarding this in the Supreme Court.
The issue of caste census is directly hitting the OBC community of the country. The OBC community is close to 30-40 percent in all the seats of the Lok Sabha, which are considered game changers. If the opposition succeeds in making the caste census an issue in 2024, then the BJP may suffer a lot.
Why is Nitish most suitable for the opposition unit?
- Know the trick of alliance- Nitish Kumar has run the government in alliance with 9 parties in the last 25 years. These include national parties like BJP, Congress and regional parties like RJD, LJP.
Nitish Kumar knows very well the work of seat sharing and adjustment of allies in the alliance.
are. Also, Nitish knows the trick of vote transfer in the alliance, so Nitish is most favorable for Congress and other opposition leaders.
- Spotless face, no allegation of corruption – Nitish Kumar is the Chief Minister of Bihar for almost 16 years. He has also been a minister in the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government at the Center, but Nitish has not been accused of any corruption so far.
Veteran BJP leaders have also praised the honesty of Nitish Kumar. In such a situation, the BJP will not be able to accuse much of corruption on this effort of the opposition unit. The Central Agency does not even have any case against Nitish.
- Secular image, relationship with most of the leaders- Nitish Kumar’s image has remained secular despite being with BJP in Bihar. Nitish has been repeatedly reiterating his resolve not to compromise on his 3Cs (corruption, crime and communalism).
Nitish has practical relations with many opposition leaders including Naveen Patnaik, Mamta Banerjee, Om Prakash Chautala, Sukhbir Singh Badal, Sitaram Yechury, which can be useful in strengthening the alliance.
- Sharad Pawar’s Hitwicket- Before Nitish Kumar, there was speculation that Sharad Pawar would get the responsibility of strengthening opposition unity, but the way his party and his statement came in the Gautam Adani and Narendra Modi’s degree controversy, many parties is uncomfortable.
Trinamool had declared Sharad Pawar as Adani’s friend. After Sharad Pawar’s hit wicket, the Congress has no better option than Nitish.
Now the story of George Fernandes, who joined 24 parties
In 1998, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) was announced against the Congress under the leadership of the BJP. The responsibility of connecting political parties in NDA was given to Nitish Kumar’s political guru George Fernandes.
George brought together around 16 parties like AIADMK, Trinamool Congress, Haryana Vikas Party. This alliance of 20 parties was formed in 1998 by including Shiv Sena, Akali Dal, Janata Dal and BJP.
The alliance got a majority in the Lok Sabha elections, after which Atal Bihari Vajpayee became the Prime Minister. The government fell after 13 months after the AIADMK withdrew support. In 1999, the election bugle rang again.
George joined 24 parties this time. It was the largest coalition of parties in India. In the Lok Sabha elections, 5 parties won seats in double digits and one party in triple digits. This NDA government lasted for 5 years.